The Icelandic ash cloud may be dissipating, but its effects will be felt for a long time. Business owners and scientists are assessing the damage and asking why things went so badly. How can Europe be better prepared for the next eruption? SPIEGEL ONLINE analyzes the options.
The chaos in Europe's airports was unprecedented. Air travel was largely shut down for almost a week after Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull glacier volcano spewed a giant cloud of ash into the air. Some 95,000 flights were cancelled. Passengers around the world were stranded on their way to Europe, while others were unable to leave...
It turns out, however, that the ban was probably largely unnecessary. British aviation experts have now come up with new limits for the maximum allowable concentration of ash in the air. According to those limits, airlines would apparently have been able to operate many routes despite the ash cloud.
Up until now there has been little data available regarding the safe upper limit for ash concentration in a flight route. On Tuesday, the UK's Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) issued new guidelines following intensive discussions between aviation engineers and experts on the effects of the ash on airplane engines. The scientists and engineers have agreed on a threshold ash concentration of 0.002 grams per cubic meter ofair. Concentrations at or below this level pose no danger to plane engines, the experts say. Measurements in Germany and Britain in recent days have confirmed that the ash concentration in the air is lower than that limit. Large-scale measurements, however, have not been carried out. For that reason and others, it seems unfair to accuse air traffic control authorities of overreacting, even given the new limits.
Air travel is gradually returning to normal in Germany. The arrival and departure boards at the two major German hubs, Frankfurt and Munich, are only showing a few cancelled flights now. German air traffic control reopened the country's air space mid-week.
Chaos and Consequences
But many people are still struggling with the consequences of the aviation crisis and the ensuing chaos. The aviation industry is complaining about the enormous costs and lost sales caused by the flight cancellations. Some German factories were forced to shut down parts of their production due to a lack of supplies. A number of companies are now threatening to sue the state over the strict flight ban.
The state-owned bank BayernLB estimates that although the ash cloud did not stifle the recovery in Germany, its effects on the economy are still difficult to gauge. According to Jürgen Pfister, BayernLB's chief economist, the airlines' losses and interruptions in deliveries could reduce economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. Economics Minister Rainer Brüderle, a member of the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), is more confident. He doesn't expect the losses to have a visible effect on
growth. But everyone agrees that the events and their effects still need to be closely examined. Was it truly necessary to close European air space? How should governments react in similar cases in the future?
SPIEGEL ONLINE analyzes the lessons the aviation industry, businesses and government agencies should draw from the crisis and what questions scientists should address.
How Soon Could the Next Disruptions Happen?
In theory, more disruptions could happen straight away. Volcanic eruptions can occur at any time in Iceland, and at the moment the risk seems greater than ever. In past centuries, Eyjafjallajökull eruptions were usually followed by eruptions of the neighboring volcano, Katla. And if Katla explodes this time, only favorable weather conditions could prevent another flight embargo.
In other words, air traffic control agencies, airlines, airports and passengers should be prepared for the worst at any time.
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Do Meteorologists Need to Obtain Better Data?
On a positive note, the volcanic cloud warning system worked. After volcanic eruptions, nine monitoring centers around the world predict the dispersal of ash clouds. The system's warnings after the
Eyjafjallajökull eruption were issued in time -- and they were justified. However, the risks posed by volcanic ash are poorly researched. For example, no one knows with absolute certainty the minimum ash concentration at which a fight route should be closed.
Weather services and atmospheric scientists were overwhelmed by the crisis, however.
Although their satellite data was incorporated into the simulations that showed the dispersal of the cloud, meteorologists were otherwise unable to give the public clear information, because they were unprepared for a volcanic ash cloud. The weather experts issued contradictory statements about the effects of the cloud, and at times seemed helpless.
They did not release their own measurements relating to the rare natural phenomenon, or if they did, it was only after several days. Meteorologists lacked both the necessary expertise and the appropriate equipment to measure the ash cloud. Such data would have been enormously important, as it would have allowed computer simulations of the ash cloud to be checked. Most of the statements on the issue released by Germany's research institutions only came after the brunt of the crisis. Right up until the end of the crisis, the institutes were still not coordinating their measurements. That is something that will
have to change next time.
Do Government Agencies Need Better Cooperation?
Anyone who has followed the news about European air traffic in the last few days will have noticed the lack of clear statements. Instead, individual European agencies issued new flight bans or loosened bans almost hourly, making for total confusion. And it became clear that, while an ash cloud from Iceland knows no international boundaries, air traffic control over Europe does.
This is because European airspace resembles a patchwork rug. There are currently dozens of control zones throughout Europe, with each country making its own decisions on when, how much and where planes can fly. European Union transport ministers only managed to agree on a loosening of the flight bans on Monday, an agreement that came much too late, as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted critically.
For decades, the airlines have been calling for something called the Single European Sky (SES). The initiative is intended to organize airspace and air navigation at a European rather than at a local level and could possibly have reduced the scope of the aviation chaos. An agency that could administer the program, Eurocontrol, already exists. But so far it has no power to direct the individual national authorities.
After the aviation chaos, however, the push for airspace reform could be revived. Spain, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, now wants to expedite the project, as Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero announced.
The advantages of the SES initiative are obvious: agreements could be reached more quickly, aircraft would no longer be forced to use detours, and countless tons of kerosene could be saved. And, not least importantly, less carbon dioxide would be spewed into the atmosphere.
But the project will not be easy, because the extent to which individual countries would have to give up their national air sovereignty remains unclear. Particularly when it comes to military issues, some national governments remain stubborn, even despite the recent aviation chaos.
Do Customers Need Better Protection?
Michael O' Leary put it in a nutshell. On Thursday, the CEO of discount airline Ryanair railed against what he called the "absurd and discriminatory" EU regulations on passenger rights. His ire was sparked by the fact that Ryanair, like all other travel providers, will have to refund ticket fares and compensate stranded vacationers for their hotel stays as a result of the flight cancellations.
On Wednesday, O'Leary said he would defy the EU regulations, but he backed down from his position on Thursday. He has no other choice. Under the EU's 2004 regulation on passenger rights, providers are required to compensate stranded vacationers. For example, if a passenger is unable to fly to Berlin or Munich as planned, he can choose between being booked on the next available flight or getting a refund of the ticket price.
The stranded passenger is also entitled to compensation for certain costs, including food, two free
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telephone calls and, if necessary, hotel stays. This is the case when, for example, a passenger coming
from Bangkok and headed for New York becomes stuck in Frankfurt.
Beate Wagner, a lawyer for the North Rhine-Westphalia Consumer Protection Agency, considers this EU
regulation to be very comprehensive. "It protects customers effectively, because the companies are
required to pay for their expenses, even in a special case like the volcanic eruption."
But so far the German airline Air Berlin has insisted that it is not always required to provide this
compensation. "We examine each claim and then make our decision," a spokesman said.
But Wagner stresses that customers should demand their rights -- by filing lawsuits, if necessary, or by
contacting Germany's Federal Aviation Authority (LBA), which accepts complaints of this nature. Wagner
says that these actions should be sufficient to resolve the problem.
Who Pays for Companies' Losses?
When it comes to the losses resulting from the aviation chaos, trade associations and companies are
outdoing each other with their estimates. According to the IATA, airlines lost a total of €1.3 billion as a
result of the ash cloud. The Airports Council International (ACI) Europe says that airports incurred the
same loss as a result of being closed for days. Meanwhile, government agencies and companies involved
in air traffic control lost €25 million a day, according to the industry association.
Companies that are not directly related to air traffic are also affected. For instance, German carmakers
BMW and Daimler were forced to shut down parts of their production because they could not be resupplied
with factory parts. The Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) suspects that
the German economy alone suffered a daily loss of €1 billion. The Royal Bank of Scotland is significantly
more cautious, estimating that the entire European economy lost €500 million a day during the crisis.
So far companies have been saddled with these costs, because insurers are insisting that the losses are
not covered by their policies. Some companies, however, have already threatened to sue the government
for damages, because they considered the German flight ban to have been too strict. No companies have
actually filed any suits, though. German Economics Minister Rainer Brüderle told the ZDF television
network that the costs of shutting down European airspace after the volcanic eruption would be balanced
out over time. "My initial impression is that this can be made up in overall volume," he said.
Possible State Assistance
Some companies fear, however, that they will be unable to shoulder the costs, and some are even warning that they could go bankrupt as a result. Instead of demanding compensation from the
government, they are pushing for government-funded financial injections. The European Commission is even looking into whether ailing companies could be provided with the kind of assistance that was made available after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 without distorting competition. So far, however, only one working group has been set up, and it could take weeks before a final decision is reached.
It is still unclear as to who would ultimately qualify for, or choose to take advantage of, possible assistance programs. Air Berlin has announced that it would consider availing itself of government assistance. "We will look at the conditions under which the assistance is to be provided," a spokesman said. First, however, the airline wants to conduct an internal assessment of its losses. Lufthansa, on the other hand, is opposed to government help.
Not all German trade associations are in favor of government assistance either. For instance, the powerful DIHK is strictly opposed to such financial injections, arguing that the government can not intervene with every risk.
Can Airlines Insure Themselves against Cancellations?
Although airlines can insure themselves against damage to aircraft or injury to passengers, there are no policies that would protect them against the kind of flight cancellations that Europe experienced in recent days, according to Munich Re, the world's largest reinsurer. Hannover Re, the reinsurance industry's fourth largest firm, also confirmed that it does not offer policies of this kind. But the interest in such insurance on the part of the airlines is large. "We would certainly take a close look at such a product," commented a spokesman for Air Berlin. "Such a policy would be interesting for us," was the reaction from Lufthansa.
It's hardly surprising: The travel chaos cost international airlines a total of €1.3 billion, according to
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industry estimates. Lufthansa alone is estimated to have lost €150 million, while experts believe Air Berlin
can expect losses in the tens of millions. Irrespective of the exact extent of the financial damage, having
insurance would have significantly reduced the costs for the companies involved.
In the future, such insurance may well become reality. Munich Re is already developing insurance
packages for airlines to protect against disruptions. "We are already having discussions with companies,"
said spokesman Klaus Schmidtke, without specifying which airlines are involved. Schmidtke explained
that the insurance could also, for example, cover situations where aircraft are grounded because of heavy
fog or snow.
Schmidtke was unable to say exactly how much such a policy would cost. It depends largely on what customers want, he explained. Lufthansa, however, fears that "the product would probably be far too expensive."
Do Airlines Need New Technology?
Experts are currently unable to say whether the volcanic ash posed a risk to jet engines. A report compiled by the German Aerospace Center earlier this week after a flight that measured the concentration and composition of particles in the ash plume over Germany contains no answer to this question.
Most experts agree that there is a risk, theoretically at least. Several NATO F-16 fighters suffered engine damage after flying through the volcanic ash cloud, with a build-up of glassy material being found in the jet engines. According to the British tabloid The Sun, a British pilot who was supposed to bring tourists home to England on Wednesday aborted the flight out to Corfu because of safety concerns. Flight operator Thomas Cook played down the incident, saying the flight had been aborted because of "a minor technical fault with its air conditioning."
"I think the aero-engine industry will take these learning effects into account," said Manfred Aigner, who leads the Institute of Combustion Technology at the German Aerospace Center (DLR). Still, because the composition of ash clouds can be extremely inhomogeneous, as the current case illustrates, improving the technology is difficult -- but there are some possibilities. One option would be to filter the air that gets sucked into the engine and eject impurities from the engine using a centrifuge effect before the particles enter the combustion chamber or the turbine blades, where they can cause damage.
But while the idea may sound simple, it is more complicated in practice. Depending on what the ash is composed of, the particles could also stick to the insides of the engine in a way that would make them unfilterable, says Aigner. Some helicopters already come equipped with sand filters, but the components also make the aircraft heavier and increase fuel consumption.
Clogged Ducts
Improvements to the engine's blades, which include numerous boreholes that are part of the cooling system, are also conceivable. Depending on its chemical composition, ash can melt as it enters the
turbine. This glazing effect creates a fine film of molten glass that can clog the cooling system. The problem isn't exclusive to volcanic ash, either -- sand from the Sahara desert can also melt and cause similar problems. "We could make these bores larger," said Odilo Mühling, head of public relations for engine manufacturer MTU Aero Engines in Munich. "But that would also have an impact on efficiency."
The Norwegians have another idea. Fred Prata, a scientist at the Norwegian Institute for Air Research, has developed a volcanic ash detector that can help planes avoid flying through dangerous silicate ash using infrared wavelength detection. Prata's invention isn't available on the market yet, but the developments in Europe over the past week could help spur industry interest in his technology.
But in decisions about where to invest in improvements to aircraft technology, companies have to take economic interests into account as well as safety. After all, innovations often come with a hefty price tag.
"The process of testing a new component can take up to five years before it is authorized for sale," Aigner said. And it generally takes 10 to 15 years before a new invention can actually be found in an aircraft.
However, one MTU innovation has already been approved. Soon the company will be adding a new material for the coating of turbine blades in serial production. The coating reduces erosion -- including the kind that can be caused by volcanic ash.
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